Reported Road Casualties Scotland 2010
Article 1 Casualty Reduction Targets: 2010 & beyond
Figure 8 Progress towards the 2010 casualty reduction targets
(A) Reported killed or Seriously Injured casualties
(B) Reported child casualties Killed or Seriously Injured
(C) Slight casualties: rate per 100 million vehicle kilometres
Article 1: Casualty Reduction Targets: 2010 & beyond
1. Introduction
In March 2000, the UK Government, the then Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new national road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. These targets (outlined in Tomorrow's roads - safer for everyone) were introduced to focus on achieving a further substantial improvement in road safety over the following ten years, with particular emphasis on child casualties. They were based on the 1994 to 1998 annual average casualty levels and it was hoped that by 2010 there would be:
- a 40% reduction in those killed or seriously injured in road accidents.
- a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
- a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, (i.e. the number slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres).
The Scottish Road Safety Framework, published in June 2009, included Scotland-specific 2020 targets to be adopted from 2010. These are discussed in section 5 of this article.
2 Summary of Progress
The 2010 figures show:
- 2,172 people were reported as killed or seriously injured in 2010, 55% (2,666) below the 1994-98 average of 4,838 - so the reduction is greater than the 2010 target of a 40% fall.
- 227 children were reported as killed or seriously injured in 2010, 73% (615) below the 1994-98 average of 842, - a greater reduction than the 2010 target of a 50% fall.
- The slight casualty rate of 25.67 casualties per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 2010 was 45% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 46.42 - a greater reduction than the 2010 target of a 10% fall.
Figure 8 shows progress towards the casualty reduction targets for 2010.
3 Killed or seriously injured
Modes of transport
As noted above (and shown in Figure 8), the relevant indicative target line figure for 2010 is 40% below the 1994-98 baseline average. Table I shows that, in 2010, the numbers of killed or seriously injured (KSI) casualties for most modes of transport were well below this target line of a 40% reduction, with falls such as 64% for pedestrian KSI casualties and 60% for car KSI casualties. However, there was one exception: motorcycle KSI casualties fell by 1%.
Car users accounted for half of the 2,172 KSI casualties in 2010. The 2010 figure of 1,006 car KSI casualties was 60% below the 1994-98 baseline average of 2,501, and therefore a greater reduction than the 2010 target of a 40% reduction. There were 502 pedestrian KSI casualties in 2010, 64% fewer than the annual average of 1,376 for the period 1994-98.
However, the number of motorcycle KSI casualties in 2010 was 353, a fall of 1% (2) from the 1994-98 average: this was the only category of road user for which the figure in 2010 was not below the target. There were 145 pedal cycle KSI casualties, 42% below the 1994-98 average. There were 68 Goods vehicles KSI casualties, 60% below the 1994-98 average. The numbers of KSI casualties in 2010 were 53 or under for the remaining categories of road user (bus/coach and others), and showed falls of 45% and 49%, respectively from the baseline average.
Children
The indicative target line figure for 2010 is 50% below the 1994-98 average. The middle section of Table I shows that, in 2010, the figures for the three main categories of child road user casualty were all lower than the 2010 target of a 50% reduction.
About two-thirds of the 227 children killed or seriously injured (KSI) in 2010 were pedestrians. The number of child pedestrian KSI casualties in 2010 was 151, 411 (73%) below the 1994-98 average of 562, and therefore a larger reduction than the 2010 target of a 50% reduction. There were 41 child car KSI casualties in 2010, a fall of 104 (72%) from the 1994-98 average of 145, and therefore a larger reduction than required for the target. Child pedal cycle KSI casualties in 2010 were also lower than the target: there were 24, a reduction of 76% from the 1994-98 average of 100. There are few child KSI casualties for other modes of transport, so small fluctuations in their numbers can cause apparently large percentage changes from the 1994-98 baseline average levels.
3 Slightly injured casualties
Modes of transport
By 2010, the indicative target line has a reduction of 10% in the slight casualty rate. Because of the limited availability of detailed reliable road traffic estimates for Scotland, Table I shows the numbers of slight casualties (rather than slight casualty rates) for categories of road user. The table also shows the overall total volume of traffic and the overall slight casualty rate.
Reductions in slight casualties were better than the 2010 reduction target (of 10%) across most categories of road users. Two-thirds of slight casualties in 2010 were car users. The total number of car user slight casualties in 2010 was 7,290, 33% below the 1994-98 average of 10,859, and therefore better than the 2010 target fall of 10%.
There were 1,512 slight pedestrian casualties 50% less than the 1994-98 average of 3,009, (again a better reduction than the 2010 target). Bus and coach user slight casualties totalled 487 in 2010, 47% fewer than the 1994-98 average, pedal cyclist slight casualties (636) were 39% below the baseline average, goods vehicle user slight casualties (386) were 34% below the baseline average and other road user slight casualties (359) were 28% less. Motorcyclist slight casualties fell by 113 from the 1994-98 average of 580 to 492 in 2010 and were 15% below the 1994-98 average.
4. Other statistics for monitoring progress
Table 40 in the main section of this publication shows the baseline figures for each local authority area for the first two targets (separately for trunk roads, local authority roads and all roads), along with the corresponding figures for each of the past 10 years and the latest five years' averages. Table 41 provides figures for each local authority area related to the third target, and Table 42 shows figures for each Police Force area related to all three targets. In addition, many other tables include the 1994-98 baseline averages.
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle |
Motor cycle |
Car | Bus/ coach |
Goods1 | Other2 | All road users |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994-98 average | 1,376 | 249 | 355 | 2,501 | 96 | 172 | 89 | 4,838 |
| 1998 | 1,156 | 210 | 371 | 2,390 | 76 | 163 | 91 | 4,457 |
| 1999 | 1,143 | 189 | 431 | 2,004 | 83 | 144 | 81 | 4,075 |
| 2000 | 997 | 176 | 475 | 1,978 | 80 | 121 | 67 | 3,894 |
| 2001 | 918 | 171 | 454 | 1,952 | 62 | 129 | 72 | 3,758 |
| 2002 | 893 | 152 | 456 | 1,782 | 59 | 141 | 50 | 3,533 |
| 2003 | 775 | 139 | 417 | 1,700 | 70 | 128 | 64 | 3,293 |
| 2004 | 750 | 128 | 395 | 1,581 | 66 | 95 | 59 | 3,074 |
| 2005 | 743 | 132 | 405 | 1,457 | 63 | 98 | 54 | 2,952 |
| 2006 | 749 | 141 | 410 | 1,433 | 57 | 99 | 60 | 2,949 |
| 2007 | 654 | 151 | 421 | 1,270 | 33 | 102 | 35 | 2,666 |
| 2008 | 705 | 164 | 430 | 1,355 | 60 | 73 | 57 | 2,844 |
| 2009 | 556 | 157 | 375 | 1,250 | 36 | 78 | 50 | 2,502 |
| 2010 | 502 | 145 | 353 | 1,006 | 53 | 68 | 45 | 2,172 |
| 06-10 ave | 633 | 152 | 398 | 1,263 | 48 | 84 | 49 | 2,627 |
| 2010 target | 826 | 149 | 213 | 1,501 | 58 | 103 | 53 | 2,903 |
| Percent changes: | ||||||||
| 2010 on 2009 | -10 | -8 | -6 | -20 | 47 | -13 | -10 | -13 |
| 2010 on 1994-98 average | -64 | -42 | -1 | -60 | -45 | -60 | -49 | -55 |
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle |
Motor cycle |
Car | Bus/ coach |
Goods1 | Other2 | All road users |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994-98 average | 562 | 100 | 6 | 145 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 842 |
| 1998 | 455 | 64 | 8 | 153 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 698 |
| 1999 | 430 | 69 | 5 | 108 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 625 |
| 2000 | 378 | 65 | 7 | 94 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 561 |
| 2001 | 353 | 56 | 7 | 110 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 544 |
| 2002 | 340 | 46 | 7 | 111 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 527 |
| 2003 | 273 | 48 | 5 | 93 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 432 |
| 2004 | 247 | 40 | 10 | 77 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 384 |
| 2005 | 244 | 30 | 11 | 69 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 368 |
| 2006 | 248 | 40 | 10 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 375 |
| 2007 | 185 | 29 | 4 | 55 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 278 |
| 2008 | 198 | 20 | 6 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 299 |
| 2009 | 156 | 27 | 2 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 258 |
| 2010 | 151 | 24 | 4 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 227 |
| 06-10 ave | 188 | 28 | 5 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 287 |
| 2010 target | 281 | 50 | 3 | 72 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 421 |
| Percent changes: | ||||||||
| 2010 on 2009 | -3 | -11 | 100 | -37 | 250 | -100 | -100 | -12 |
| 2010 on 1994-98 average | -73 | -76 | -31 | -72 | -39 | -100 | -100 | -73 |
| Pedestrian | Pedal cycle |
Motor cycle |
Car | Bus/ coach |
Goods1 | Other2 | All road users |
Traffic | Slight casualty rate |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| numbers | mill veh-km | per 100 mill veh-km | ||||||||
| 1994-98 average | 3,009 | 1,034 | 580 | 10,859 | 912 | 583 | 501 | 17,478 | 37,653 | 46.42 |
| 1998 | 2,921 | 930 | 605 | 11,444 | 887 | 643 | 580 | 18,010 | 39,169 | 45.98 |
| 1999 | 2,620 | 828 | 594 | 10,901 | 841 | 609 | 534 | 16,927 | 39,770 | 42.56 |
| 2000 | 2,607 | 708 | 655 | 10,675 | 854 | 542 | 582 | 16,623 | 39,561 | 42.02 |
| 2001 | 2,487 | 745 | 724 | 10,342 | 761 | 595 | 499 | 16,153 | 40,065 | 40.32 |
| 2002 | 2,423 | 676 | 711 | 10,050 | 801 | 621 | 460 | 15,742 | 41,535 | 37.90 |
| 2003 | 2,215 | 663 | 697 | 10,055 | 822 | 537 | 474 | 15,463 | 42,038 | 36.78 |
| 2004 | 2,328 | 648 | 599 | 10,024 | 849 | 561 | 419 | 15,428 | 42,705 | 36.13 |
| 2005 | 2,308 | 649 | 677 | 9,532 | 794 | 495 | 478 | 14,933 | 42,718 | 34.96 |
| 2006 | 2,104 | 640 | 658 | 9,272 | 706 | 484 | 456 | 14,320 | 44,120 | 32.46 |
| 2007 | 2,049 | 563 | 640 | 8,793 | 590 | 506 | 431 | 13,572 | 44,666 | 30.39 |
| 2008 | 1,887 | 566 | 612 | 8,314 | 527 | 467 | 373 | 12,746 | 44,470 | 28.66 |
| 2009 | 1,643 | 647 | 645 | 8,330 | 437 | 423 | 416 | 12,541 | 44,219 | 28.36 |
| 2010 | 1,512 | 636 | 492 | 7,290 | 487 | 386 | 359 | 11,162 | 43,488 | 25.67 |
| 06-10 ave | 1,839 | 610 | 609 | 8,400 | 549 | 453 | 407 | 12,868 | 44,193 | 29.12 |
| 2010 target | 41.78 | |||||||||
| Percent changes: | ||||||||||
| 2010 on 2009 | -8 | -2 | -24 | -12 | 11 | -9 | -14 | -11 | -2 | -9 |
| 2010 on 1994-98 average | -50 | -39 | -15 | -33 | -47 | -34 | -28 | -36 | 15 | -45 |
1. Light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles.
2. Taxis, minibuses and other modes of transport
3. A percentage change is not shown if the baseline figure is small.
5. Scotland specific 2020 Targets
Scotland's Road Safety Framework was launched in June 2009. It set out the vision for road safety in Scotland, the main priorities and issues and included Scotland-specific targets and milestones which will be adopted from 2010.
| Target | 2015 milestone % reduction | 2020 target % reduction |
|---|---|---|
| People killed | 30% | 40% |
| People seriously injured | 43% | 55% |
| Children (aged < 16) killed | 35% | 50% |
| Children (aged < 16) seriously injured | 50% | 65% |
Each reduction target will be assessed against the 2004/08 average. In addition to the targets a 10% reduction target in the slight casualty rate will continue to be adopted.
The 4 main targets differ to previous targets in that deaths have been separated out from serious injuries as, in recent years, trends have been different - serious injuries falling steadily but deaths declining at a lower rate.
The targets are deliberately challenging, particularly for child deaths as Scotland's record for child deaths is proportionately worse than that of England and Wales. The (child fatality) target itself will be monitored using a 3 year rolling average due to the small numbers involved.
To illustrate the reductions necessary the following table show the level of casualties inferred by the 2015 milestones and 2020 targets above.
| 2004/2008 average | 2015 milestone | 2020 target | |
|---|---|---|---|
| People killed | 292 | 204 | 175 |
| People seriously injured | 2,604 | 1,484 | 1,172 |
| Children (aged < 16) killed | 15 | 10 | 8 |
| Children (aged < 16) seriously injured | 325 | 163 | 114 |
Charts showing indicative lines of progress are in figure 8a. More detail about the calculation of these indicative lines is included in section 6 below.
6. Assessing progress towards the casualty reduction targets
One way of assessing progress towards the targets is to compare actual casualty numbers in each year with an indicative line that starts at the baseline figure in 2006 and falls, by a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, to the target for 2010. This is the approach adopted by the GB Road Safety Advisory Panel. The indicative line starts at the baseline figure in 2006 as that is the middle year of the baseline period. Other approaches could have been used: there are many ways of producing lines that indicate how casualty numbers might fall fairly steadily to the targets for 2020.
The method adopted to produce the indicative target lines shown in Figure 8a involves a constant percentage reduction in each year after 2006 to the 2015 milestone, then a constant percentage reduction between 2015 and 2020. The resulting indicative target lines represent the percentages of the baseline averages which are shown in the table below. They are not straight lines, because of the compounding over the years effect of constant annual percentage reductions (to two decimal places, the falls are: 3.89% p.a. for killed to meet the 2015 milestone and 3.02 between 2015 and 2020. For seriously injured casualties the falls are 6.06% and 4.61%. For child killed 4.67% and 4.37 or seriously injured 7.41% and 6.90.
| Killed | Serious | Child killed | Child serious | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | % baseline (milestone from 2015) | % reduction from baseline (milestone) | |
| 2006 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| 2007 | 96.1% | 3.9% | 93.9% | 6.1% | 95.3% | 4.7% | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| 2008 | 92.4% | 7.6% | 88.3% | 11.7% | 90.9% | 9.1% | 85.7% | 14.3% |
| 2009 | 88.8% | 11.2% | 82.9% | 17.1% | 86.6% | 13.4% | 79.4% | 20.6% |
| 2010 | 85.3% | 14.7% | 77.9% | 22.1% | 82.6% | 17.4% | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 2011 | 82.0% | 18.0% | 73.2% | 26.8% | 78.7% | 21.3% | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 2012 | 78.8% | 21.2% | 68.7% | 31.3% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| 2013 | 75.8% | 24.2% | 64.6% | 35.4% | 71.5% | 28.5% | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| 2014 | 72.8% | 27.2% | 60.7% | 39.3% | 68.2% | 31.8% | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 2015 | 70.0% | 30.0% | 57.0% | 43.0% | 65.0% | 35.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||
| 2016 | 97.0% | 3.0% | 95.4% | 4.6% | 95.6% | 4.4% | 93.1% | 6.9% |
| 2017 | 94.1% | 5.9% | 91.0% | 9.0% | 91.5% | 8.5% | 86.7% | 13.3% |
| 2018 | 91.2% | 8.8% | 86.8% | 13.2% | 87.5% | 12.5% | 80.7% | 19.3% |
| 2019 | 88.5% | 11.5% | 82.8% | 17.2% | 83.7% | 16.3% | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 2020 | 85.8% | 14.2% | 79.0% | 21.0% | 80.0% | 20.0% | 69.9% | 30.1% |
Figure 8a Progress towards the 2020 casualty reduction targets
(A) Reported casualties killed
(B) Reported seriously Injured casualties
(C) Reported children killed
(B) Reported child seriously Injured casualties
